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中国经济将走向正常化 China will become a more “normal” economy

更新时间:2013-01-05    来源/发布:www.en369.cn    作者/编辑:英语作文网

中国经济将走向正常化 China will become a more “normal” economy

2013 will be remembered as the year China became a more “normal economy”. What does normality mean for China? Soon-to-depart Premier Wen Jiabao’s oft-cited quote that China’s growth is “unbalanced, unsustainable and uncoordinated” is a good place to start.
2013年将被铭记为中国“经济走向正常化之年”。对于中国而言,经济正常化的含义是什么?即将离任的国务院总理温家宝曾指出,中国发展中的“不平衡、不协调、不可持续问题依然突出”,这句被频繁引用的讲话是一个很好的切入点。
China was an abnormal economy with its state-led capitalist approach that produced double-digit growth rates, no major financial crises and average wage increases of 12 per cent annually for decades. But the drivers of this impressive economic transformation will no longer be available to the new leadership. Beijing cannot simply open the monetary floodgates to stimulate the economy as was done in previous downturns.
过去中国的经济发展模式并不正常。中国选取的国家主导型资本主义道路在数十年间带来了高达两位数的年经济增长率,期间没有发生重大金融危机,并实现了每年高达12%的平均工资增幅。但对中国的新一届领导集体而言,推动实现这一令人印象深刻的经济转型的主要力量将难以继续发挥作用。中国政府不能再像过去遭遇经济下行周期时那样,单纯依靠打开货币闸门来刺激经济增长。
Rates of growth in the 7-8 per cent range will become the norm and the key question is whether growth will be of higher quality – more balanced, sustainable and coordinated?
7%-8%的增长速度将成为中国经济的新常态。问题的关键在于,中国经济增长的质量是否会有所提高——变得更加平衡、更可持续、更加协调?
China is in fact already rebalancing – internally, externally and spatially. Internally, if consumption continues to increase at 9 per cent annually and investment growth declines from over 15 per cent to 6-7 per cent, the consumption and investment shares of the economy will become more “normal”. Externally, the current account balance will also continue to moderate as domestic demand increases with urbanisation and investors diversify by shifting more of their funds abroad. China will also become spatially more balanced as the interior will grow much faster than the coast and urbanisation will accelerate.
事实上中国目前已在着手平衡经济结构——包括国内经济领域、对外环节以及区域经济结构。在国内经济领域,如果消费保持9%的年均增速,而投资增速从超过15%降到6%至7%的水平,则消费和投资在整体经济中所占比重将更加“正常”。在对外领域,随着城镇化进程推动内需上升以及投资者把更多资金投向海外,中国的经常账户盈余料将持续下降。中国在区域经济结构上也将更趋平衡,主要原因在于城镇化进程加速,以及内陆地区的经济增速将远超沿海地区。
China’s growth can also be more financially and environmentally sustainable with further reforms. Actions to strengthen the banking sector are already underway but its fiscal system needs to be transformed to take on more responsibility for channeling resources. And China’s Five Year Plan provides a platform to achieve environmental sustainability by sharply increasing energy efficiency and curbing pollution.

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