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做空日本时机已到? Hedge funds say this time shorting Japan will succeed

更新时间:2012-12-03    来源/发布:www.en369.cn    作者/编辑:英语作文网

做空日本时机已到? Hedge funds say this time shorting Japan will succeed

Why would a hedge fund manager be interested in adult diapers? They are a clue to what growing numbers of hedge funds are now seeing as the next big trade: the bursting of Japan’s bond bubble.
为何对冲基金经理会对成人尿布感兴趣?答案是,成人尿布是判断日本国债泡沫是否行将破裂的线索——有越来越多的对冲基金正将这个泡沫的破裂视为下一桩大买卖。
This year, sales of adult diapers in Japan eclipsed sales of infant ones for the first time; a neat statistic that captures the huge demographic challenge the country faces – one big factor of several that bears believe are behind a crisis set to break in the coming months.
今年,日本成人尿布的销量首次大幅超过婴儿尿布。这一明确的统计数字突显出日本面临的巨大人口挑战——看空日本国债的人士认为,几个月内日本定将爆发一场危机,而人口挑战就是这场危机的几大致因之一。
“What did Bernie Madoff’s titanic Ponzi scheme teach the world?” asks Kyle Bass, a Dallas-based hedge fund manager who has garnered a wide following for his contrarian – sometimes borderline apocalyptic – views, in his letter to investors this month.
驻达拉斯的对冲基金经理凯尔•巴斯(Kyle Bass)上月在致投资者的信中问道:“伯尼•马多夫(Bernie Madoff)的巨大庞氏骗局让世人明白了什么?”巴斯因其逆向投资观点而吸引了大批追随者,尽管他的观点有时显得危言耸听。
“A key takeaway should have been that you can make outlandish promises for the future as long as you maintain one key ingredient: more victims entering the scheme than exiting.”
巴斯写道:“世人应该已经明白了至关重要的一点,即只要你能确保一个关键条件——落入骗局的受害者比走出的多——你就可以针对未来许下离谱的诺言。”
His point is simple: social security costs in Japan have been rising steadily. The retirement age is 65. And the peak years for Japan’s birth rate were the four from 1947.
他的论点很简单:日本的社保成本一直在稳步上升。日本人的退休年龄是65岁,而始于1947年的四年是日本出生率的巅峰期。
Japan is finally facing its reckoning, Mr Bass says, driven by insuperable demographic forces and triggered by a worsening current account – which has for the first time slipped into deficit – after years of widening debt to gross domestic product and falling government revenues.
巴斯表示,在这方面,日本终于将迎来“算总帐”的一天。这个问题是由不断恶化的经常账户引发的:多年来,日本债务相对国内生产总值(GDP)的比例不断扩大,政府财政收入不断下滑,日本经常账户首次出现赤字。无法克服的人口因素又对问题的加剧起到了推波助澜的作用。
And yet, we have been here before. Betting against Japan has been a persistent hedge fund favourite.
然而,这并不是什么新鲜的论点。长期以来,对冲基金一直都喜欢做空日本。
David Einhorn, founder of Greenlight Capital, for example, has been short Japan one way or another since 2009, and shorting the yen has been a failed trade for many of the world’s most seasoned macro hedge funds four years running.

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