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英经济政策重演哈布斯堡的衰落 British economic policy echoes

更新时间:2012-11-28    来源/发布:www.en369.cn    作者/编辑:英语作文网


It is difficult to plough through the Bank of England’s recent inflation report and associated Monetary Policy Committee minutes without being reminded of a slogan current in the last years of the Habsburg empire: “The situation is hopeless but not desperate.” Or was it the other way around? In any case, the main message of the report is that the outlook is gloomy and the risks are on the downside, but nothing much can be done about it.
翻阅英国央行(BoE)最近的通胀报告及相关的货币政策委员会(Monetary Policy Committee)的一些会议备忘录,令我不由得想起流行于哈布斯堡帝国(Habsburg empire)末期的那句口号:“情形没有任何希望,但还不算绝望。”或许这话应该倒过来说?反正不管怎么说,通胀报告传递的主要信息是,前途渺茫,凶多吉少,而他们束手无策。
I ended my first extended essay on economic policy, more decades ago than I like to think back, by remarking: “The unKeynesian belief of some leading Treasury men that there is little the government can do to secure full employment in the face of adverse world forces is not encouraging.” All I would have to do now is to add the BoE, which has become more of an independent influence on policy, to the critique. As the UK is now a much smaller part of the world economy than when I first wrote these words, it should be easier to chart an independent course – but apparently not if you are a British policy maker.
在遥远的几十年前,在我的第一篇关于经济政策的长篇论文末尾,我写道:“财政部一些重要人物存在一种反凯恩斯的信仰——他们认为,面对世界形势中各种不利因素,政府能为保证完全就业所做的很少。这种信仰令人失望。”如今,我只想把英国央行也列为这一批评的对象,英国央行已经能够较为独立地对政策施加影响力。如今的英国在全球经济中所占比重已比我当初写下那段话时大大减小,走独立路线按说应该更加容易,但如果你是英国的一名政策制定者,情况显然不是这样。
The growth of real gross domestic product is expected to be below its trend average until well into 2015, even allowing for the much-vaunted Funding for Lending scheme. As we are starting from a very depressed level, output in that year is expected to be below its pre-crisis 2007-2008 level. If that is not stagnation, I do not know what is. I do not claim to have any idea what Keynes would be saying today but I can hear him turning in his grave.
即便将叫好声一片的“贷款融资计划”(Funding for Lending)考虑在内,预计英国实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长率在2015年前仍将低于趋势平均值。而由于我们是从一个极端不景气的起点起步的,预计到2015年产出仍会低于危机前2007年至2008年的水平。如果这还不是经济停滞,我不知道什么是。我并不是说我知道凯恩斯会对此说些什么,不过我确实听到他老人家正气得在坟墓里翻身。
The inflation outlook is a little less gloomy. After rising towards 3 per cent in the next few months, it is expected to fall back towards the target 2 per cent some time in 2014. But even that forecast is hedged with qualifications. Inflation can be buffeted by volatile commodity price movements; there is a big question mark over domestic productivity movements and uncertainty “about the extent to which idiosyncratic influences, such as tuition fees and domestic energy bills will continue to impart upward pressure”.

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