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如何选择新兴市场投资基金

更新时间:2012-11-22    来源/发布:www.en369.cn    作者/编辑:英语作文网

如何选择新兴市场投资基金
Emerging Markets: Why So Many Funds Are Flawed



 

After a rough year and a half, emerging-market stocks have come back down to reasonable levels. But investors who want exposure to the faster-growing economies of the developing world should think twice about standard emerging-market mutual funds. Funds that focus on smaller stocks in the developing world offer a much purer play.
新兴市场股票在经历了一年半的震荡走势之后已经回归合理价位。但投资者如果希望投资增速较快的发展中经济体,在面对那些公认权威的新兴市场共同基金时必须多加斟酌。相较而言,专注于发展中世界小型股票的基金能够提供更加纯粹的投资渠道。
Stock markets in emerging economies such as Brazil, China and India have been on a roller-coaster ride for nearly a decade. For the five years ended Oct. 31, 2007, the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which tracks the stock markets of 21 developing countries, rose 372%─only to collapse by two-thirds during the financial crisis, a steeper fall than that suffered by Western markets. Similarly, the index more than doubled in the aftermath of the crisis, only to start falling again after April 2011.
巴西、中国和印度等新兴经济体股市在近十年的时间里呈现出过山车般的走势。在截至2007年10月31日的五年中,追踪21个发展中国家股市的摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets)上涨了372%──但在金融危机期间下挫三分之二,跌幅高于西方市场。此外,该指数金融危机后上涨了逾一倍,但2011年4月份之后开始再度下跌。
Emerging-market stocks have been hit by a number of factors. Certain countries, such as Brazil and China, have seen a slowdown in growth. And the European debt crisis caused many investors to retreat from volatile assets of all sorts.
有一些因素对新兴市场股市构成了打击。巴西和中国等一些国家经济增长放缓。而欧洲债务危机则导致许多投资者规避各类高波动性的资产。
The decline has left overall valuations looking reasonable. The MSCI Emerging Market index trades at around 12 times earnings for the past 12 months, compared with 15 times at the end of 2010 and 17 times at the end of 2007. In many markets, dividend yields─that is, dividends as a percentage of stock price─look attractive, especially when compared with the paltry 2.1% offered by the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index. According to FactSet, the overall yield on Asia-Pacific markets, excluding Japan, is about 2.6%. The yields on the Brazilian and Russian stock markets are about 4% each.
股市的下跌使总体估值趋于合理。摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数过去12个月的市盈率在12倍左右,而2010年年底和2007年年底的市盈率分别为15倍和17倍。许多市场的股息率(即股息与股价之比)比较吸引人,与标准普尔500指数区区2.1%的股息率相比尤其如此。FactSet的数据显示,不包括日本在内的亚太市场总体股息率在2.6%左右。巴西和俄罗斯股市的股息率均在4%左右。
Despite recent concerns about near-term growth, the longer-term emerging-markets story remains attractive. Emerging-market economies are projected to expand much more quickly than those in the U.S. and the West, as they continue to industrialize and hundreds of millions of consumers there see rising standards of living. The International Monetary Fund predicts emerging-market economies will account for 60% of the world's economic growth over the next five years. Per-capita output in Asia, excluding Japan, is predicted to rise 48%, compared with 18% in the advanced economies, albeit from a lower base.

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